Race Strategy Simulation

An endurance-format race requires a stint plan that holds up under safety cars, degradation uncertainty and driver-time rules.

1. 01Fit a degradation model from long-run practice data.
2. 02Simulate stint combinations within fuel and driver-time constraints.
3. 03Stress-test each plan with safety-car timing scenarios.

A plan that is fastest on paper loses its advantage under most safety-car scenarios; a slightly longer first stint is more robust.

• Degradation becomes the dominant factor after the mid-point of a stint.
• Robust plans keep a pit window open for safety-car opportunities.
• A small number of pre-agreed triggers simplify pit-wall decisions.

Choosing a robust plan over a theoretically optimal one reduces exposure to race-day variance.

Strategy is risk management. Modelling it beforehand turns race-day calls into pre-planned responses.